Sherwood Forest Bi-Weekly Report | Market Commentary

The market environment has completely changed from the volatile, trendless environment in 2011 to a low volatility trending one in the beginning of 2012.  Informal research since the turn of the calendar reveals that the last three years have been the worst environment for trend followers for many years.  The Managed Futures Category, which is a collection of diversified Trend Following strategies, suggests that it was the worst three year period since the inception of their index, dating back to 1994.  Some will read this anecdotal evidence and suggest that Trend Following, as an investment strategy is dead.  And it will not be the first time that short sighted investors have written off this proven long term strategy.

If an investor was to combine two important investment concepts; that being “Trend Following” and “Contrarian Investing,” it would suggest that after coming out of a period of underperformance with a long term successful investment strategy, an investor would be positioning themselves in a favorable risk/reward in regards to the timing of such a strategy.

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